With Donald Trump taking office as the 47th President of the United States, one thing is certain: immigration is back in the spotlight, and not in a subtle, quiet way. As debates rage over border security, undocumented workers, and legal pathways to citizenship, the numbers tell a fascinating, if slightly chaotic story of the state of immigration in the U.S.

A Land of Immigrants…Still? Let’s start with some cold, hard facts. Mexico remains the top country of birth for U.S. immigrants. In 2022, around 10.6 million immigrants living in the U.S. were born in Mexico, making up a staggering 23% of all U.S. immigrants. Other large immigrant groups include India (6%), China (5%), the Philippines (4%), and El Salvador (3%).

A Troubling trend indeed. While legal immigration follows predictable trends, the unauthorised immigrant population has seen significant fluctuations. It is estimated that in 2022, the number of unauthorised immigrants reached 11.3 million, reversing a long-term decline seen from 2007 to 2019.

It is estimated that there are around 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants living in the United States. Indians are believed to represent the third-largest group of unauthorised immigrants in the country, making up 6.6 percent of the total, based on 2022 data, but only 3% of all unlawful crossings in 2024 involved Indian nationals.

Notably, in 2023 alone, nearly 90,000 Indian nationals were arrested while attempting to enter the U.S. illegally-yes, you read that right. This has led to a bit of a diplomatic headache, with India and the U.S. trying to figure out what to do with the increasing number of undocumented Indian workers but there is a twist in the tale. A significant number of Indians legally immigrate to the United States. Due to the high demand for H-1B visas, they make up the largest group of skilled professionals in the country. 

Under Trump 2.0, the U.S. has identified around 18,000 illegal Indian immigrants for removal as part of mass deportations. The reality for many of these immigrants is grim. Many live a “quasi-legal” existence while waiting for years to hear back on their asylum claims. 

The Economic Tug-of-War

From a purely economic standpoint, this wave of deportations could have significant consequences for both the U.S. and India.

  • For the U.S.: Removing undocumented workers could lead to labor shortages in industries that rely on them, such as construction, hospitality, and retail. The economy has historically depended on immigrant labor, both legal and undocumented.
  • For India: The sudden return of thousands of undocumented workers could flood the job market, intensifying competition and potentially driving wages down. On top of that, remittances sent back to India would shrink, impacting families and local economies that rely on these funds.

Trump’s Immigration Hammer: Who Wins, Who Loses?

Trump has invoked an immigration law Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) that allows the President to suspend the entry of foreign nationals deemed “detrimental” to the U.S. While past immigration enforcement focused on detaining unauthorised immigrants and giving them a chance to plead their cases in court, Trump’s latest orders fast-track deportations.

This shift raises some serious questions.

  • Will the deportation push create more instability in already vulnerable communities?
  • Could it actually make illegal immigration worse by forcing people to take more desperate and dangerous routes into the country?
  • Will India see a new wave of returning migrants, and if so, is it ready for them?

Indian Americans: A Powerful but Wary Community

Indian Americans make up just 1.5% of the U.S. population, yet their impact is massive. Consider this:

  • 16 Fortune 500 companies currently headed by CEOs of Indian origin.
  • Indian companies have poured $40 billion into the U.S. economy since 2008.
  • Indian Americans pay 6% of all U.S. taxes.

If the U.S. tightens its grip on H-1B visa rules, 72% of which are held by Indians, fewer skilled Indian workers may find themselves heading to the U.S. for jobs. This could mean a drop in the cash (remittances) they send back home, which would hit India’s economy and the rupee in the wallet. Plus, Indian IT companies that thrive on sending talent to the U.S. for projects might need to rethink their entire business model.

On top of that, India is biting its nails over Trump’s possible plans to slap higher tariffs on its goods, making Indian exports to the US more expensive.  To avoid this trade drama, India will have to cozy up with the U.S. on some sticky issues, like illegal immigration.

Trump has made his views clear, demanding that U.S. Commerce and Treasury departments figure out why the U.S. has such a hefty trade deficit with countries like India. He’s even gone so far as to create a new agency, the “External Revenue Service,” to collect tariffs from foreign governments, just like the Internal Revenue Service handles taxes at home. Oh, and did we mention he called India a “tariff king” and a “trade abuser” at a rally? That’s stirred up quite a bit of concern in India about possible trade penalties.

Now, if fewer Indian workers head to the U.S., there could be a bigger push to ramp up local job creation and skill development within India. More companies might turn to local talent, boosting the Indian job market, but brace yourselves – that could also mean fiercer competition, especially for those high-skilled positions.

In short, if the U.S. cracks down on immigration and limits the H-1B visa flow, fewer workers will be able to take advantage of better wages and send more remittances back home. While this might push India to focus on its own job market, it could also spark a battle for those coveted roles.

So, while mobility agreements have their perks by offering access to global job markets, stricter policies in places like the U.S. could create roadblocks for countries like India. The trade-offs? From fewer job opportunities to shrinking remittance flows.

And, who knows? If the U.S. becomes a no-go zone for Indian workers, they might turn to other places, like the Middle East, for work and cash. Eventually, they could return home, as we’re seeing with major migration corridors heading to countries like the UAE.

Where Do We Go from Here?

Trump’s renewed immigration crackdown is already sending shockwaves through the undocumented immigrant community, and it’s clear that both the U.S. and India will have to navigate some tricky waters. While the crackdown may be politically popular in some circles, the economic and social consequences could be significant.

For now, all we can do is watch as this policy unfolds and see how it shapes the future of migration. Will the U.S. manage to strike a balance between border security and economic needs? Or will the ripple effects push skilled and unskilled migrants alike to look elsewhere for opportunity? One thing is for sure, immigration remains one of the most complex and emotionally charged issues in American politics.

And in true Trumpian fashion, the drama is only just beginning.