Executive Summary

India’s trucking industry is projected to grow over fourfold by 2050, driving economic growth but also significantly increasing transportation emissions. As the world’s fifth-largest economy with a GDP nearing USD 4 trillion, India transports 4.6 billion tonnes of freight annually, amounting to 2.2 trillion tonne-kilometres and costing ₹9.5 lakh crore, as per a 2022 report by NITI Aayog. With rapid urbanisation, e-commerce growth, and rising income levels, freight demand is expected to expand to 9.6 trillion tonne-kilometres by 2050. The bulk of this movement—70%—is carried by road transport, predominantly by heavy- and medium-duty trucks (HDTs and MDTs).

In response to this growth, Zero Emission Trucks (ZETs), such as battery electric trucks (BETs) and fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs), offer a crucial solution. ZETs eliminate tailpipe emissions and have lower operating costs, providing an opportunity for India to simultaneously reduce air pollution and improve economic efficiency. By embracing ZETs, India can enhance public health, reduce its environmental footprint, and position itself as a leader in sustainable transportation.

Zero Emission

India’s Global Leadership Opportunity in ZET Manufacturing

Many global markets are transitioning from diesel trucks to ZETs, driven by the economic and environmental benefits. The European Union aims to deploy 80,000 ZETs by 2030, while the United Kingdom has committed to zero-emission heavy-duty trucks by 2040. Similarly, California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation mandates the increasing sale of ZETs, contributing to global discourse on the importance of zero-emission freight.

India has a strategic opportunity to become a global hub for ZET manufacturing. With supply chains increasingly globalised and significant growth in freight demand, India’s leadership in ZET adoption can differentiate its position in the export market. This will require coordinated actions from both public and private sectors to build ZET supply chains and deploy necessary infrastructure. Ambitious policies, such as financial incentives and regulatory support, will be key to scaling ZET adoption.

Key Findings on the Impact of ZETs

This report highlights India’s potential for ZET adoption across various freight applications, including short intrastate and long-haul operations. The analysis takes a conservative approach, assessing capital and operating costs based on current technology. In a mature market, ZETs offer significant economic, environmental, and public health benefits:

  1. Logistics Cost Savings: ZETs can reduce transportation costs by up to 46% over the vehicle’s lifetime, primarily by lowering diesel consumption.
  2. Growing Freight Demand: India’s road freight sector is experiencing rapid growth, contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Medium and heavy-duty trucks, though making up only 2% of the total vehicle population, account for nearly 45% of transport emissions. Freight demand is expected to quadruple by
    2050, further exacerbating the environmental burden unless timely interventions are made.
  3. Infrastructure and Policy Support: The lack of adequate charging infrastructure and coordinated policies between national and local governments were highlighted as significant barriers to ZET deployment. Building ZET corridors, upgrading the electricity grid, and modernising charging networks are critical infrastructure
    investments needed to support electric trucks. A national roadmap that includes financial incentives and strategic policy frameworks was emphasised to catalyse adoption.
  4. Energy Security: ZET adoption could reduce diesel consumption by 838 billion litres by 2050, cutting oil imports and saving ₹116 lakh crore.
  5. Air Quality Improvements: Trucks, though only 3% of the vehicle fleet, contribute 53% of particulate matter emissions. Widespread ZET adoption could reduce trucking emissions of particulate matter and nitrogen oxides by 40%, improving public health.
  6. Global Competitiveness: By fostering a robust domestic ZET market, India could become a leading exporter of ZET-related technologies, producing up to 4,000 gigawatt-hours of batteries by 2050.
  7. Cost Parity: For MDTs, ZETs can achieve lower total cost of ownership (TCO) than diesel trucks, with cost parity in the HDT segment expected by 2027.
  8. Carbon Emission Reductions: ZET adoption could cut trucking carbon emissions by 46%, contributing to a cumulative reduction of 2.8–3.8 gigatonnes of CO2 by 2050.
  9. Market Growth: With supportive policies, ZET sales could achieve 85% market penetration by 2050, transforming India’s trucking landscape.
  10. Public-Private Partnerships: Collaboration between the public and private sectors is essential to scaling up ZET adoption. Stakeholders from logistics firms, truck manufacturers, and financial institutions must work in tandem to develop solutions that address both technological and financial challenges. International cooperation, such as partnerships under the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) initiative, was also underscored as a key driver of growth.

Strategies for Scaling India’s ZET Market

India can unlock the full potential of ZETs through a combination of policy, technological advancements, and infrastructure development:

  • Policy: Introduce demand-side measures like subsidies and zero-emission zones, along with supply-side policies to drive innovation among manufacturers.
  • Technology and Manufacturing: Focus on improving battery chemistry and domestic production to support the long-term demand for ZETs.
  • Charging Infrastructure: Implement a mix of depot and fast-charging solutions, supported by government intervention to lower infrastructure costs.
  • Financing and Business Models: Develop new business models such as battery leasing and performance guarantees to reduce upfront costs and encourage adoption.
Zero Emission

ZET Corridors: A Catalyst for Growth

India’s freight traffic is concentrated along seven major corridors, making them ideal for ZET deployment. By strategically investing in charging infrastructure along these routes, India can accelerate ZET adoption and refine its best practices for scaling zero-emission freight. With effective collaboration between stakeholders, India is well-positioned to lead the global transition to zero-emission trucking, securing long-term economic, environmental, and public health benefits.