The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, driven by plummeting costs, technological advancements, and robust government policies. In 2023, electric cars accounted for 18% of global passenger vehicle sales – a ninefold increase from just five years prior in 2018, when the share was 2%, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This shift promises substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, a critical step towards limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Yet, the success of this transition hinges on a vital, often overlooked factor: charging infrastructure. Countries leading the charge, such as Norway and China, demonstrate a clear correlation between EV adoption and the availability of charging networks. But which comes first: the vehicles or the chargers? Using examples from top adopters, alongside India’s unique economic context, this article explores this chicken-and-egg dilemma and charts a path forward for the subcontinent.
The Correlation: Evidence from Global Leaders
Norway, the undisputed champion of EV adoption, offers a compelling case study. In 2023, nearly 95% of its passenger vehicle sales were electric, a dramatic leap from less than 1% in 2010. This meteoric rise didn’t occur in isolation. The Norwegian government, starting in the 1990s, paired generous financial incentives, like tax exemptions, with a deliberate push to expand charging infrastructure. Today, Norway boasts the world’s highest density of public fast chargers per capita, capable of charging an EV from zero to 80% in just 20 minutes. This network, coupled with policies like free parking and bus lane access, made EVs not just viable but preferable. The result? EV sales soared once charging became convenient and cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles was achieved around 2012.
China, the world’s largest car market, tells a similar story on a grander scale. In 2023, over 35% of its passenger vehicle sales (8.1 million units) were electric, outstripping the rest of the world combined. China’s government kicked off this revolution in 2009 with subsidies and tax breaks, but the real game-changer was infrastructure. By 2023, China had significantly expanded its network, supporting a market where electric cars reached a sales share of more than one in three. Affordable models like the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, priced around USD 5,700 in 2023, slashed range anxiety and spurred adoption. In both Norway and China, charging infrastructure didn’t merely follow EV sales; it catalysed them.
Contrast this with slower adopters like the United States and Europe, where electric car sales in 2023 reached 10% and over 20%, respectively. While growing, these figures lag behind partly due to less dense charging networks. The U.S. saw 1.4 million new electric car registrations in 2023, a 40% increase from 2022, boosted by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act’s USD 7,500 tax credits. Yet, until recently, its infrastructure rollout trailed demand, suggesting that adoption can outpace infrastructure if incentives are strong, but sustained growth requires chargers to catch up.
Chicken or Egg: What Drives What?
So, does EV adoption drive infrastructure, or vice versa? The evidence suggests a symbiotic relationship, but infrastructure often takes the lead. In Norway, the government’s early investment in chargers, before EVs dominated sales, created a foundation for consumer confidence. Sales didn’t explode until 2012, when charging was widespread and costs aligned with ICE vehicles. China followed a similar playbook: pilot cities rolled out chargers alongside subsidies, priming the market for mass adoption by 2023, when sales hit 8.1 million. Li et al. (2023) reinforces this, finding that a 10% increase in public charging stations correlates with a 15% rise in EV uptake across 20 countries from 2015–2022, with the effect most pronounced in early adoption phases.
However, the reverse can also hold true. In smaller markets like Vietnam, where electric car sales soared from 7,000 in 2022 to over 30,000 in 2023 (15% sales share), adoption surged after early demand – driven by domestic player VinFast – pressured infrastructure expansion. Zhang et al. (2024) notes that in high-income or niche markets, consumer demand can jumpstart infrastructure, but only if supported by policy. Generally, though, proactive infrastructure investment precedes and sustains exponential growth, as seen in Norway and China.
India’s Economic Scenario: A Charger Conundrum
India, the world’s fourth-largest car market, stands at a crossroads. Electric car sales grew from negligible levels in 2018 to 80,000 in 2023, a 70% year-on-year increase from 2022, reaching a 2% sales share, as per the IEA. However, two-wheelers and three-wheelers dominate India’s EV landscape, with total EV sales (including 2/3Ws) hitting over 1.5 million in 2023, as per estimates aligned with India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) trends. The government aims for 30% EV penetration by 2030, a target that could slash oil imports and curb urban pollution. Yet, charging infrastructure remains a bottleneck.
As of February 2024, India had 12,146 public charging stations, a 640% rise from two years prior, according to IBEF. Maharashtra and Delhi lead with 3,079 and 1,886 stations, respectively. However, with only 80,000 electric cars registered by 2023 against this total, the ratio stands at roughly 7 EVs per charger – better than earlier estimates but still above the global benchmark of 6–20 when considering all EVs (1.5 million). Range anxiety persists, particularly for four-wheelers. A 2023 report by Bain & Company estimates India needs a robust network of charging stations by 2030 to support growing EV demand, which will be a massive leap from today’s figures. The economic stakes are high: EVs could unlock a $100 billion market, but only if infrastructure scales.
India’s price-sensitive market amplifies this challenge. Electric cars remain costlier than ICE equivalents, with batteries driving upfront costs. Subsidies under the FAME II scheme boosted four-wheeler sales by 117% in 2023 to 80,000 units, but growth demands chargers beyond urban hubs. Rural grids, strained by a 9–12% demand surge in 2023, struggle to support expansion, deterring private investment. Sharma et al. (2025) warns that without grid upgrades, India’s EV goals risk stalling, as power cuts undermine charging reliability.
The Way Forward: Lessons for India
India can learn from Norway and China, adapting their strategies to its context. First, proactive infrastructure investment is key. Norway’s charger density and China’s vast network show that availability drives adoption. India should prioritise fast chargers along highways and in tier-2 cities, leveraging public-private partnerships. The FAME II scheme allocates 10% of its budget to chargers, but a 2022 World Bank report suggests this is four to seven times more effective than purchase subsidies in boosting uptake, hence, India could redirect funds accordingly.
Second, policy alignment is critical. Sixteen countries, including Japan and the UK, mandate 100% EV sales by 2035. If India sets a similar target, paired with mandates for affordable models (like China’s USD 15,000 Neta V), it could accelerate cost parity. Kumar et al. (2023) argues that India’s Production-Linked Incentive scheme could cut battery costs below $100/kWh, vital for mass adoption.
Third, equity matters. Subsidies should target low-income households, as Norway did initially, while battery-swapping stations, nascent in India’s two-wheeler segment, could slash costs and downtime, as per Vallera et al. (2021). Finally, grid resilience is non-negotiable. Integrating renewables, as suggested by Sharma et al. (2025), could power chargers sustainably, aligning with India’s net-zero-by-2070 goal.
Conclusion
The correlation between charging infrastructure and EV adoption is undeniable – Norway and China prove that chargers pave the way for vehicles, not the other way round. For India, bridging its infrastructure gap is both an economic opportunity and an environmental imperative. By investing ahead of demand, aligning policies, and ensuring equitable access, India can join the EV vanguard, turning its 2030 vision into reality.
*All the data figures, which have not been otherwise linked, are taken from the International Energy Agency report titled Global EV Outlook 2024 (Chapter: Trends in Electric Cars).
Citation: IEA (2024), Global EV Outlook 2024, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024, Licence: CC BY 4.0